Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
