Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
